Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
